Blackjack is a card game in which players compete against the dealer. The objective is to obtain cards with a total value of 21 or closer without going over, than the dealer’s hand. Each player’s first two cards are dealt face up. The dealer then takes a card, which is placed face up on the table. If the dealer’s face-up card is an Ace, players can choose to take insurance, which pays out 2 to 1 on their original wager.
The game is played on a semicircular table that can accommodate varying numbers of players (or “spots”). Each spot has a circle that represents a dollar amount that may be wagered. Players place their bets by touching the appropriate wager circle on the bottom of the screen. A summary of bets, winnings, and credits remaining is displayed in the lower left corner of the screen.
A single deck of 52 cards is used in the game, and each player is dealt two cards. Each card has a numerical value from one to nine. The ace counts as either 1 or 11, and the rest of the cards count at their face value. A pair of aces, tens, or faces is called a blackjack and is paid out at odds of 6 to 5 or 3 to 2.
Once the players have completed their action, the dealer’s turn begins. The dealer must hit if his or her hand is 16 or less, and stand if it is 17 or more. After the dealer has finished playing his or her hand, the players’ hands are compared to determine the winner. If the dealer’s hand is higher than the player’s, the dealer wins and sweeps the player’s bet. If the dealer’s hand is equal to the player’s, it is a push and the player keeps his or her bet.
Novices are prone to losing more often than expert players because they do not understand the game as well. Specifically, novices struggle with handling the exceptions to the rules of blackjack that are likely to arise infrequently. Experts, on the other hand, have a clear understanding of how to handle these situations.
In two studies, we experimentally manipulated participants’ confidence in their knowledge of blackjack strategy to examine potential psychological and behavioral consequences of unjustified confidence. We found that greater unjustified confidence was associated with higher outcome expectations, anxiety, risk taking, and reduced use of hints designed to improve play. We believe these results are important because they suggest that confidence in an ability to win at a game like blackjack can have significant, real-world consequences. We also examined the interaction between these effects and identified several potential mechanisms by which unjustified confidence might affect behavior. These findings provide the basis for future research on how confidence in blackjack skills influences risk taking and other behavioral outcomes. The results from these experiments can help to inform the design of educational and other interventions intended to reduce the effects of unjustified confidence.
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